some kinda mixture of natural selection and the terminator plot

we're gonna work more in the service department, and not production/manufacturing :) and overall we'll either collapse out of stupidity (all ressources gone), use some common sense and live together in peace (while the currently rich nations will have to give away some of their current standards) or we'll just get brasilian circumstances and few rich ones will suppress the poor ones by violence. interesting times we live in =)

Who knows, with stuff like the internet, the possibility of getting the 'regular' person to rise up against 'the man' is possible, see: Anonymous vs. Scientology.

very nice :D

alpaka! :D

i don geddit

Humanity will more and more be divided into a rich and a poor part.

Yes. Humanity will change. Definitely.

what do you think, specifically, about the issue, yeltsin? will the ussr save the world?

uh, that experiment was foiled. As to your post... It's quite naive. Have you even thought it through? You must have had some form of a history class by now, and you probably have learned about city states, farming, technology. Manual labor will always be displaced. Axes replaced old women and Combines replaced them. Nothing really changes here, and the increasing efficiency always in the end benefits society as a whole, be it at a price of those who are replaced.

but do you think economic models may be abandoned once only <5% of humanity are able to work?

What in the world makes you think only <5% of humanity are going to be able to work in the future? How do you even define work??

i'm convinced any kind of physical labor will be replaced by machinery or newer technology.

What does that have to do with anything? Are you trying to say that you define work as "physical labor"?

no. i'm kind of assuming that only a small minority of the population will be able to find jobs, that aren't physical labor but require some kind of education, while the rest of the population struggles to find work that they're qualified for, which is mostly physical labor jobs that get replaced as our understanding of technology evolves. i'm basically saying that there will be less jobs created than there will be jobs terminated in the future, while the population increases. i thought i was pretty clear.

yeltsin will pokes holes in anything and ignore the quite gleamingly obvious question that you're asking. you'll learn.

yea, he probably couldn't give less of a shit, because the subject has absolutely nothing to do with ussr.

I think im making it obvious i dont agree with the premise of the question, am i supposed to answer it anyway, if it doesn't make sense to me?

wtf premise are you talking about? i'm not trying to argue with you, i'm just asking you what you think the economic model of the future might be like.

meh, fuck yeltsin. tell me what you think about this.

And I asked you what you're basing that idea on. The trend in technological advances on average has been shown to simply decrease the crudeness or physical labor, meanwhile there has actually been an increase in employment opportunities due to overall rise in efficiency (post. ind. econ.) coupled with increasing diversification of the labor market.

"And I asked you what you're basing that idea on."

scroll up man ,wtf. even jobs that don't take much work will be replaced by some kind of technology. eventually, you should be able to go to mcdonald's and instead of having your order taken by a person, theres just a touchscreen or something and you press the button of the burger or w/e u want and then it asks you if you'd like any of the components removed etc. someday, there probably will be giant farms that are entirely run by machines. get what i'm saying?

I get what you're saying. It's not not based on anything solid ideas. This sort of future has been long argued over and often dismissed as childish nonsense by all "futurologists" :) This sort of age was supposed to come in next 50 years every year for about 150 years.
Yes, there might be a McDonalds machine in the future, but not likely any time soon, and that doesn't change anything overall. Whaat you're doing is just projecting future technology onto present. In reality there will be completely diffrent needs and jobs addressed in the future that we can't predicts now. But we can predict a robot McDonald, hah. Actually, even if such a machine isn't going to replace a top French restoraunt, probably ever. With plausible rise of AI, yes we are talking about a completely new reality, but how soon is that going to happen? I kind of hope for the singilarity to happen, but it's actually hard to say when it is going to happen. One thing I'm sure off, people will find what to 'work' on.

"This sort of future has been long argued over and often dismissed as childish nonsense by all "futurologists" :) This sort of age was supposed to come in next 50 years every year for about 150 years."

i would like to read w/e you've read. i haven't made any claim that things will be like this "in the next 50 years".

"Yes, there might be a McDonalds machine in the future, but not likely any time soon, and that doesn't change anything overall."

am i talking about the near future?

"In reality there will be completely diffrent needs and jobs addressed in the future that we can't predicts now."

yea? what kind of needs and jobs, mr. futurologist?

"But we can predict a robot McDonald, hah. Actually, even if such a machine isn't going to replace a top French restoraunt, probably ever."

and you know this, for sure?

"With plausible rise of AI, yes we are talking about a completely new reality, but how soon is that going to happen?"

honestly, i don't think AI will be necessary to end the era of manual labor. again, i'm not really talking about this century, unless technological advances are so great, that this will happen within the next 100 years.

"One thing I'm sure off, people will find what to 'work' on."

like what?

"i would like to read w/e you've read. i haven't made any claim that things will be like this "in the next 50 years"."

I'm not very good with names, but I do have kind of a list of Sci-Fi I read for me to find new good ones, but it's in Russian, I'll get that if you want. If this is an interesting subject, all you have to read to satisfy the interest is quality sci-fi by people who had extensive knowledge about myriad of subjects, like Stanislaw Lem. I think there is a list of people who actually call themselves "futurologists" or were labled so, but I wouldn't take most of them seriously. Subject-specific research is a much better way to tell whats going to happen, you simply have to put the peaces together.

"am i talking about the near future?"

You tell me.

"yea? what kind of needs and jobs, mr. futurologist?"

""we can't predicts now""

"and you know this, for sure?"

As much as you can know anything about the future? But that is why I said this, it was only relevant in the context of the next sentence. Things that make a top restaurant have to do with uniquely human, creative, artistic, abilities. We're not going to have robots write our poetry, make our music, unless they will no longer be robots, but intelligent beings that can be interchangeable with humans.

"honestly, i don't think AI will be necessary to end the era of manual labor. again, i'm not really talking about this century, unless technological advances are so great, that this will happen within the next 100 years."

And I don't think so either! Humans would have to "ascend" in order to eliminate "manual labor" :)

"like what?"

Anything I say is bound to be wrong, not to mention there is no point in specific examples here. Predicting the future is like understanding any process. It can be done as accurately as ibe can understanding the mechanisms by looking at the past trends. I think already went into what those were on the count of technology/labor relationship. In order to for you to convince me how this relationship is going to change, you have to provide some sort of a fundamental formula-altering *NEW* event. Singularity is such an event. Physical/crude labor being displaced is *not* new.

what kind of economy do you think the world will adopt in the future(100-300 years from now)?

don't want to make you laugh :(

..

something A LOT like communism unless something catastrophic happens :)

fuckin finally u answer my question. yea i don't think capitalism can work for humanity that far into the future.

oh, it will still be mixed faction like and a form of capitalism, just that the form of capital will be such that a person would not even think about it on a day-to-day basis. Who know if we will be into String-membrane farming or what, or destroy ourselves/devolve, either way I'm only certain that any specific prediction will be wrong, which is why I hesitate to make one ;)

whats wrong with just throwing some ideas up in the air for people to see?

or cartoons?

NWO + Illuminati + Bilderberg

I think we're all going to end up being robots in someway.
I don't mean like metal arms and legs, but neurologically in someway it will be possible to walk into a Walmart and download the spanish language into your "memory" or an encyclopedia.

The real problems with computers and A.I. is that they have huge problems defining their logic which makes them look stupid in the real world, but people are very good at that

Imagine what happens when you merge the two?

I think people have hit a barrier socially where they need technology to play an equal part in order to evolve.
It's already happening as you're all iewing this on a computer, you probably have a mobile phone next to you and about a million other gadgets you take for granted. It only a matter of time till they become smaller and closer to home. the progression of the watch is a good example. Once confined to a clock tower, then shrunk down for personaluse. Imagine you could just think the time and you would know.

I think life will continue to get harder for people who do medial skills. but if all you qualified to do is swipe food at a super market then that's your fault for not doing something with your professioanal life.

Always been about survial of the fittest.

rise of the cybertarrerist!

what do you guys feel about eugenics and social darwinism?(awful imo)

I felt more strongly when they removed Teryaki Chicken from sub of the day.

you're a fuckface.

eugenics sounds good, social darwinism sounds retarded

Hmm, I think redundant jobs are just replaced with more sophisticated jobs, thus not always decreasing job opportunities, but just shifting them towards other sectors and industry. World population will decline, economic growth will become more rapid in less developed countries, markets will grow as newly developed countries population requires more and better services. State subsidies will start to backfire in developed countries, where trade will start to become more regulated in these countries. China will continue to produce, while America will continue to spend. Attention could be focus on Africa by the west, while oil remains in some countries aswell as an increase in bio diesel fuel production. China and India will probably try and secure most investments in Africa and South America. We won't fly around in jet packs and we will fight global cooling. More species of fauna and flora will be discovered, life will be found on mars, polar bears will stay at the same number. Australia will still win the cricket world cup, Cote de Ivore will win a world cup. Terrorism will continue, Iran will have Nuclear power. Afghanistan will still be a disaster.

kekekeke
just rambling, haven't gave it much thought :P nn

/palmface

elaborate

"World population will decline.."

???

"Attention could be focus on Africa by the west, while oil remains in some countries aswell as an increase in bio diesel fuel production."

solar?

"We won't fly around in jet packs and we will fight global cooling."

wtf?

"..life will be found on mars, polar bears will stay at the same number."

..

"..Iran will have Nuclear power."

iran has nuclear power, right now.

It seems my predictions are awesomely accurate.

u troll

wut?
"/palmface"
etc
you not elaborating... just going "..." so I go ...
discuss.

Even though when writing that I was kinda smashed \:D/

Labor is simply becoming more mental. Our bodies are becoming obsolete. I suggest taking up gardening. Tending to your brain is almost the same as tending to a garden.

I would have to say, robotics (machines plus A.I.) will cause a second industrial revolution. I don't see why people think it is going to happen so far into the future. For years now, I personally have been capable of creating robotics systems to replace every fast-food worker in the world. What do you need? Something to take orders (incredibly difficult... touch a few numbers on a computer screen, slide through a credit card, drive forward), something to cook and package the food (a few robotic arms, mixed with some conveyor belts), and something to serve the food (a conveyor belt, plus a food-order confirmation, plus like a boxed-in shelf to safely push the food out close enough to the car).

It's incredibly simple stuff. People tend to over-complicate based on strange things, like images. When people talk about 'robot' workers, most probably imagine something like a humanoid robot. I see literally no practical use for a humanoid robot. The human form is not like the optimal form for everything. The different aspects of a robotics system should be form-optimized based on the job.

I think everyone's duty will be to jerk off on internet forums because the robots themselves won't have any "jerk off" algorithms on them (because that would be useless). So I guess you guys are safe for now.

The problem we in Germany have is that labor which doesn't require any training/education is decreasing strongly. At some places totally gone already. But on the other hand there are many new jobs which require University/College education which can't be filled, because we lack of those ppl. Especially IT.

I think with a solid education, you have a good chance of getting a decent job. But without, you are pretty much lost.

I read smth. very interesting in a magazine recently, where some US-economist says that it might be possible that the majority of people don't have to work at all in future. Because of fancy robots I guess ;).
Who knows what it will be like in future....Only make sure you don't get lost on track.

yeah, getting an education and going into an abstract-creative field as far away from what computers can do already seems most wise <: